Complexity Measurement: A New, Comprehensive Metric for Project Management

The dynamism and volatility of a project or a portfolio (frequently changing scope, objectives, priorities, resource allocation, etc) imply that the project can no longer be managed and governed with static or predefined metrics, methodologies, and best practices. As the environment in which a project has to be managed becomes uncertain and unpredictable, it becomes necessary, if not mandatory, to measure, manage, and control the complexity of a project. This is particularly true for mega projects that involve multiple stakeholders who may be geographically dispersed and that affect multitudes of beneficiaries. Such projects are too big to fail and may be termed too complex to fail (TCTF). Such highly complex projects that offer, introduce, or enable innovative technologies that must respond to organizational changes or business needs are inherently fragile. Their fragility is proportional to their level of complexity. A project with a fragile structure can suddenly, and without warning, exhibit behaviors and reactions that could lead to unexpected results not in line with the defined objectives. It is, therefore, preferable to design and maintain a less complex project that can provide the same levels of performance and results. If properly controlled and managed, complexity will become a critical factor for success in the development and implementation of projects. Therefore, it becomes important to adopt a comprehensive metric to objectively measure the complexity of large, complex, and unpredictable projects or program environments. This paper describes how the complexity of any project can be measured. Following, we will explain how, through its measurement, complexity can provide a significant contribution to management: First, as an early warning indicator that can forecast and forestall possible crises in time-sensitive situations; and, second, from a business intelligence point of view, allowing for identification of the main factors that generate or increase the level of complexity. The goal of managing TCTF projects will essentially be to decrease the level of complexity to the “physiological” limits of a project in which complexity is properly balanced with the benefits and risks.